2010 Graphical Player

Throughout last season, Squawker Lisa and I contributed fantasy baseball analysis to Heater Magazine. After the season, Heater editor John Burnson invited us to write individual projections for each Met and Yankee player for the Graphical Player 2010, which has just been published.

While the book is aimed at fantasy baseball players, non-fantasy players will also find plenty of interesting analysis and projections. For example, here's what the Braves' writer thinks about Javier Vazquez:

One of the best pitchers in the NL, where he seems to be more comfortable. If Vazquez stays in Atlanta, he should repeat his great year, as he found a situation that suits him, but all bets are off if he is traded.

For the statheads, features of the Graphical Player include:

• Projected 2010 stats and historical dollar values for single and mixed Roto leagues, as well as tallies for points leagues.
• Four years of career stats, including splits for RH/LH and 1st-half/2nd-half.
• Support for a variety of fantasy categories, including Caught Stealing, Complete Games, Blown Saves, Holds, Quality Starts and more
• Minor-league stats down to Single-A for 2009 for every player.
• Profiles of more than 100 prospects, with independent rankings from three experts.
• Speculative rosters for every MLB team for 2010, 2011, and 2012.
• Metrics like xFIP, wOBA and Wins Above Replacement

2010 Graphical Player

Javier Vazquez trade: Does NL East have mercy rule for Mets?

The only good things that have happened for the Mets this offseason are the Phillies getting rid of Cliff Lee and the Braves getting rid of Javier Vazquez. Thanks to their rivals, the Mets have at least some chance of competing in 2010.

Granted, the Phillies are still heavy favorites to win the NL East, but if they had held on to Lee, there would have been a lot of debate in NYC about making 2010 a rebuilding year.

As for the Braves, I know Squawker Lisa and many Yankee fans are outraged over the Vazquez trade, but even if Home Run Javy, as Lisa likes to call him, can't pitch in NYC, he is certainly able to pitch well in the NL East - last year with the Braves and earlier with the Expos. The Mets are much better off with Vazquez gone, especially when the only immediate return is Melky Cabrera.

The Melkman may be a fan favorite, but he would not even be starting for many teams. And it's not as if the Braves have been smart lately when it comes to acquiring outfielders - their last big outfield acquisition was Ryan Church, who has already been non-tendered.

So the Braves only have Melky and some prospects to show for dealing Vazquez and Jeff Francoeur. The best prospect, Arodys Vizcaino, just turned 19, so it will be some time before we learn whether this trade ever pays off for the Braves.

The only player left in the Twins organization from the Johan Santana deal is Deolis Guerra, who was a couple of months away from turning 19 at the time of the trade. Guerra was hot prospect then and a key to getting the trade done.

Here's what a Twins site said about Guerra last month:

The young right-hander from Venezuela has loads of potential, but is still a long way from re-discovering his status as a top prospect.

...We shouldn’t worry about when we might see Guerra in a Twins’ uniform. More important right now is that the young right-hander re-discovers himself and becomes relevant again.

The site ranked Guerra 15th out of the top 15 prospects in the Twins' organization.

Guerra is still only 20, so he may yet pan out. But you never know what you will end up getting with a teenage pitching prospect, and if that is the main price to pay for a Vazquez or a Santana, it is well worth the risk.

So thanks, Phillies, for creating at least the illusion of a pennant race by trading away Lee. And thanks, Braves, for another dubious trade.

At least there has been some good news out of Philadelphia and Atlanta. Now if only we could get some good news out of Queens.

Javier Vazquez trade: Does NL East have mercy rule for Mets?

Javier-self a lousy little Christmas, or why I don't want Javier Vazquez as a Yankee again!

The news that Javier Vazquez is putting on the pinstripes once more - he was just traded for Melky Cabrera and Mike Dunn - is literally the worst thing I've heard all day. And given that I have been stuck at Newark Airport for over five hours now, and am looking at maybe another eight to ten hours before I can get a standby flight to Austin, that is really saying something!

Yes, I'm angrier about Home Run Javy's return than I am at missing my flight to Texas this morning thanks to wretchedly slow security and baggage check. Grrrrrr.

I called Squawker Jon a little while ago to tell him about my flight debacle, and he told me the trade news. I didn't exactly take it well - I screamed "Noooooooo!" into the phone.

As I wrote on Facebook this morning, if Javier Vazquez is the answer, then I don't want to know the question.

Yes, I know Vazquez had a great 2009 with the Braves. Carl Pavano also had a very good year as well, but I don't want him back, either. The first time for both of them in pinstripes was more than enough for me.

Remember Vazquez's 5.00 ERA against the Sox in 2004, or his 9.95 ERA in the postseason against Boston? (Yes, I know that most of the 2004 roster is gone, but still.) While Javy did have a strong first half in 2004, he was so terrible in the last few months of the season that he was out of the postseason rotation. Yes, Joe Torre trusted Kevin Brown - broken hand and all - more than he did Vazquez.

And I still have nightmares about witnessing Vazquez's last performance in pinstripes in person, on October 20, 2004, when he gave up a grand slam to Johnny Damon on the very first pitch, breaking Yankee hearts everywhere, and making me weep.

A Red Sox fan/Squawker reader on Facebook asked me who I thought the Yankees should have traded for instead. I said Carlos Zambrano. He's a little wacky, but at least there's the hope he could be successful in New York. I have no such hope for Vazquez.

Brian Cashman appears to be systematically getting rid of the postseason stars/good personality guys/players able to handle New York on this team, like Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and now Melky Cabrera. It's one thing to trade Cabrera and get a pitcher in return - I can understand that. I just can't understand giving Vazquez another try. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.

We all know how important it is for a player to be able to handle New York. It's why Johnny Damon was worth every penny of that $52 million contract - he's a winner. Hideki Matsui hit a grand slam in his first game as a Yankee and became a fan favorite - and MVP of the World Series. Javier Vazquez, not so much.

Yahoo Sports' Big League Stew calls Javy a "baseball chameleon," noting:

It's often been said that Vazquez is a pitcher that throws best when the expectations are low and his stats do back that up. Three of his top ERA+ years came in the anonymity of Montreal and one came for the 2007 White Sox, who went 72-90. This year's ERA+ of 139 equals his career-best with the 2003 Expos, but while the Braves stuck around as a potential contender for longer than expected, they didn't occupy striking distance space for long.

Meanwhile, Vazquez's worst ERA+ years — with the exception of his first two seasons — all came with contenders: the '04 Yankees, the '05 D'Backs and the '06 and '08 White Sox.

What the heck is Cashman thinking? He offers Damon $7 million a year (as one of our readers notes, less than even Mike Cameron is getting from the Red Sox), but takes on Vazquez's $11.5 million contract? Good grief.

What do you think? Leave us a comment!

Javier-self a lousy little Christmas, or why I don't want Javier Vazquez as a Yankee again!

Will you boo or cheer Johnny Damon when he comes marching into the stadium?

I'm not happy that the Johnny Damon Era appears to be over for the Yankees. And I'm even less happy that Nick Johnson is the new DH. But, unlike Red Sox fans did, I plan on cheering Damon whenever he does come back to Yankee Stadium. And I would cheer even louder if he and the Yankees could somehow come to terms, and bring him back next year.

Look, I didn't expect both Damon and Hideki Matsui to come back. But I also didn't expect Matsui to get such a cheap deal with the Angels - $6.5 million for a one-year deal. Or for him to be "replaced" with somebody more injury-prone than he is. So what if Johnson is younger - he can't stay healthy.

While I was happy with the Curtis Granderson deal, I'm not happy with these other moves. But I will try to be optimistic that Brian Cashman has something good up his sleeve. A year ago this week, he gave us the best Christmas gift possible, with Mark Teixeira. Is it too much to ask for some other move this week to make Red Sox wail and gnash their teeth? Dare to dream!

What do you think? Leave us a comment!

Will you boo or cheer Johnny Damon when he comes marching into the stadium?

The Philadelphia Story: How I wore a Yankee hat in Philly - and lived to tell about it

Who makes a better Philly cheesesteak - Pat's or Geno's? Who do Phillies fans hate more - Yankee fans or Met fans? And can you wear a Yankee hat in Philadelphia and stay safe? I tried to discover the answers to these and other questions by visiting the city this week.

I live only 90 miles away from Philly, yet I hadn't visited the town in decades. But the Yankees playing the Phillies piqued my interest in the city - it actually looked like a fun place. Besides, as I noted last month, I wanted to do a Yankee victory tour, with me reenacting the Rocky steps scene. So, I decided to go check out the town, and I brought my pal Squawker Jon along as my partner in crime.

To my blogging friend's dismay, I insisted on wearing a Yankee hat or a Yankee winter cap around Philadelphia for most of the trip. (Squawker Jon hid his Mets fandom and went incognito.) I wasn't sure what reaction I would get, but I hoped that I would merely get good-natured ribbing. I figured Phillies fans just don't have the same hatred for Yankee fans that they do for, say, Met fans. And I was correct.

Plenty of people noticed the hat, but nobody booed, cursed or threw snowballs at me, although one guy teased me to throw the hat out. Another fan seemed genuinely interested in asking what I thought of Philly, asking me how I liked visiting the city of the National League champions. For the most part, there was grudging respect for the Yankees - and with me for the Phillies - as opposed to the New York/Boston hatred. Also talked with several Phillies fans about our common enemy - the Mets (although actually, calling the Mets the enemy is like saying the nail is the enemy of the hammer!)

But the best reaction came from a Philadelphia police officer at the Philadelphia Museum of Art. I made Squawker Jon take pictures of me as I ran up the steps like Rocky, and hoisted my arms in triumph at the top of the steps. The cop, who was there with other police officers doing some training exercise where fellow cops rode bikes down the steps (looked pretty scary to us!) took in the scene, and told me this: "Parading around in a New York Yankees cap at the Philadelphia Art Museum? That's illegal!" Fortunately, he said it in a joking manner - and made his fellow cops (and us!) laugh as well. That quote might have been the highlight of the trip!

We also saw some of the usual sights, like the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall, as well as some other less-known treasures. For example, we absolutely loved the Reading Terminal Market, a combination farmers' market/high-end butcher/seafood store/unique shops/food court. There's really nothing quite like it in New York. We also liked just walking around and seeing what's what around town.

At the end of the trip, we decided to weigh in on the great cheesesteak debate. Here's the story - rival restaurants Pat's and Geno's - across the street from each other at 9th Street and Passyunk Avenue in South Philly - both claim to be the go-to cheesesteak place. Jon and I figured we would argue about this, as we argue on pretty much everything else. We split a cheesesteak at each place (both with Cheez Whiz and onions, or Wit' Whiz, as I think it's called.) Then we made our votes.

But, for once, Squawker Jon and I did not argue. We both agreed that Geno's was the clear winner. The city of brotherly love brought us on the same side for once!

All in all, it was a great trip. The streets of Philadelphia were a lot of fun. And I have a sneaking suspicion the Yanks will be back there for next year's World Series.

Coming tomorrow - my thoughts on the state of the Yankees! But in the meantime, tell us what you think.

The Philadelphia Story: How I wore a Yankee hat in Philly - and lived to tell about it

The 'Annie Hall' view of the Mets

The way people view the Mets this offseason reminds me of the joke in "Annie Hall" in which the old ladies at the Catskills resort complain that the food is terrible - and such small portions. The Mets are criticized for not spending enough - and for throwing away money on the wrong players.

The Post's Mike Vaccaro warns that Jason Bay could be the next Bobby Bonilla. The Record's Bob Klapisch thinks the Mets should trade Johan Santana. (Thanks to Andrew Vazzano of The 'Ropolitans for posting the Klapisch link.)

I agree with much of what Vaccaro has to say:

How many times do you have to sign Kevin Appier and Bobby Bonilla before you recognize the difference between attracting the cream of a good free-agent class (see Sabathia, CC, and Teixeira, Mark) and the prettiest homecoming queens of Homely High?. . .

It is one thing for a team with resources, such as the Mets, to muscle up for Mike Piazza or Carlos Beltran or Frankie Rodriguez, seminal players whose coveted gifts demand top dollar; it is another to throw money at players who would be second-tier free agents in other winters.

The best news so far this offseason is that it wasn't the Mets who gave Randy Wolf $30M for three years. Joel Pineiro hopes to get an even more ludicrous contract. These over-30 pitchers have each come off one good season (not a great season, a good one) after years of injury and mediocrity.

The numbers currently being discussed for Bay are a lot more reasonable than Scott Boras comparing Matt Holliday to Teixeira.

Vaccaro thinks the Mets should avoid spending on Bay to save money for the great free-agent class of 2011. But there are no guarantees that any of those potential free agents are available, and if they are, that the Mets would be able to get them. Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett would be of interest to every team willing to spend on free agents, starting with the Yankees.

Why shouldn't the Mets try to win now? Has everyone forgotten that this team won 89 games only a year ago? If everyone comes back healthy, the Mets still need a cleanup hitter to replace Carlos Delgado. And signing Bay helps the Mets not just now, but for the next few years, unlike Omar Minaya's signing of Moises Alou.

Just because the Phillies are clearly better on paper does not mean that the Mets should go into rebuilding mode, as Klapisch wants them to do. Does Klapisch want the Mets to become the Indians? How has trading CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee worked out for them? While it is too early to judge the prospects acquired in those deals, it is not too early to say that the Indians stink now and are likely to continue to stink for the next few seasons.

Klapisch, though, believes that every Met high-profile signing has been a failure:

Still, the Mets have to make peace with the idea that the Santana experiment has failed, just as the Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner gambles all turned to vapor. Yet, they continue to chase The Next Great Star as if this was 2006 and they were one player away from greatness.

In 2008, Santana nearly pitched the Mets into the postseason. Beltran has been one of the best players in baseball for most of his Met contract. Pedro and Wagner were both All-Stars until they got hurt. Of all these contracts, the only one that could be considered a failure was the one for Pedro, who was only able to give the Mets 1 1/2 out of four years. Wagner was a top closer for more than 2 1/2 years out of his four-year deal. For a free-agent pitcher, that is a good percentage.

Klapisch should realize that the big-money signings are what propelled and kept the Mets in contention. Santana was not an "experiment," but a great move for a team that a the time was one player away.

The problem is not pursuing high-profile free agents. It is having a lousy farm system, mediocre coaching that does not teach fundamentals and a questionable training and medical staff.

In "Annie Hall," Allen says that a relationship is like a shark - it must keep moving forward or it dies. Klapisch thinks it is time to kill the shark:

It's true, dealing the franchise's best pitcher would be tantamount to surrender. But it would be at least be an honest admission to fans, who've grown weary of the all the disappointment.

Yep, that's the way to please the fans. Just like in 1977, when the Mets traded Tom Seaver. What a relief to not have to worry about whether or not I would land postseason tickets.

The Mets need to make like a shark and keep moving forward to return to contention in 2010.

The 'Annie Hall' view of the Mets

What the Mets offseason so far has in common with 1969

After the Mets won 73 games in 1968, their biggest offseason move was acquiring Wayne Garrett in the Rule 5 draft. Then again, 1969 was a miracle.

It's going to take a lot more than Henry Blanco to turn the 70-win 2009 Mets into contenders next year. But it is too early to call this offseason a failure. If the Mets end up with Jason Bay, Bengie Molina, a half-decent, not-too-pricey starter and the return to health of all the injured stars, 2010 will look a lot better than it does now.

That is, of course, a lot of ifs.

I really wanted John Lackey on the Mets, but I can understand balking at a five-year deal for a pitcher who is over 30 and has been injured at the start of the last two seasons.

ESPN's Buster Olney has a chart of the 16 starters since 1990 who signed free agent contracts of at least five years. The list has a lot more busts (Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, Chan Ho Park, Kei Igawa, Darren Dreifort, Denny Neagle) than big successes (Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina and maybe Kevin Brown).

Olney adds that it is too early to judge CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Daisuke Matsuzaka's contracts.

The list does not include non-free agents who signed contract extensions, such as Johan Santana.

Even after reading the list, I still wish Lackey were a Met, but if the Mets end up with Jason Bay instead, at least it will be easier to justify giving a position player a five year deal if it comes down to that.

The most difficult thing to justify would be giving Molina, who turns 36 next season, a third year.

I also have a bad feeling about giving Joel Pineiro a big contract, just as I'm glad it was not the Mets who gave Randy Wolf almost $30M for three years.

But I don't think the Phillies' getting Roy Halladay drastically improves them, not when they had to give up Cliff Lee. Of course, the Phillies were already a good deal better than the Mets.

But with the Dodgers in disarray because of the ownership issue and the Cardinals possibly losing Matt Holliday, it is not clear how many other NL teams are a good deal better than the Mets.

There is still reason to be hopeful for 2010.

What the Mets offseason so far has in common with 1969

Are the Boston Red Sox building a bridge to nowhere?

Gather round, Boston fans. I have some questions about what you think about the state of your team these days.

I wrote something for The Faster Times about Jason Bay's rejection of the Sox's offer, and the pending Mike Lowell trade. It seems to me that the concept of loyalty is very one-sided in Soxland. Lowell took the hometown discount to stay in Boston, and he gets traded (pending that thumb issue, of course). Same thing happened with Bronson Arroyo - he got traded two months after leaving four million on the table. Nice!

Then there's the way that we inevitably hear negative things about the player when they're on their way out the door. Last year, Jason Bay was considered better than Manny Ramirez. Now, he's supposedly an injury risk. Right. The same way that Mike Lowell, considered one of the classiest guys to ever put on a Boston uniform, is supposedly now a clubhouse complainer. (See my article for more details, and go to Baseball Think Factory to read others commenting on my piece.)

The way the Sox front office trashes its players is so unseemly, yet it happens pretty much every single time a Boston player goes elsewhere. Tacky.

Anyhow, Theo Epstein had some talk the other day about how 2010 will be the bridge period. Sounds like it's the cheap period to me, with another year of John Smoltz/Brad Penny type supposed "low risk/high reward" signings. Like this year, with the Sox signing the immortal Boof Bonser, after all!

Of course, ticket prices are still going up during this transition time. Shocker!

Are the Sox already conceding the 2010 AL East division title to the Yankees? I think they are. As does Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy. He sharply criticized the Sox in a recent column, saying fans should "not buy the bill of goods the Red Sox are selling." He continued:

I’m not buying. The Sox have the dough to sign Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. Just like they had the money to bag Mark Teixeira last winter. But they keep getting beaten by the Yankees and then they cry about it.

Stop. It’s hideous of the Sox and their fans to complain about the Yankees buying championships. Sure, the Yanks can afford Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett, just like the Sox were able to afford Matsuzaka and Drew. The Sox got Curt Schilling and Victor Martinez the same way the Yankees got Curtis Granderson this week. The Sox are not the Pirates. They are not the Brewers or the A’s. The Sox are Haves, not Have-Nots. Like the Yankees, the Sox are happy to raid the rosters of teams that can’t afford high-priced talent.

Absolutely. I thought about that Schilling deal the other day, and how Sox fans I knew then tried to claim that Boston gave up a lot in that trade in Casey Fossum and Brandon Lyon. Please.

Shaughnessy also writes:

It’s nice that Theo has a passion for player development, but asking fans to take a year off is outrageous. Henry is a billionaire and the Sox are making bundles of money. If you don’t believe that, call their partners at Ace Ticket and try to score a few tickets.

Agreed. John Henry is worth a lot more money than George Steinbrenner is. Why are they holding the purse strings tight with one hand, and raising ticket prices with the other?

One other thing I also read at the Boston Globe this week was about how Theo opposed the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hanley Ramirez trade, made in his brief absence from the team in 2005.  That makes no sense to me. Yes, the Sox gave up a future superstar in Ramirez. But they also won the 2007 World Series thanks to Beckett and Lowell. That seems like a pretty fair tradeoff.

Let's take a quick look at some of the 2010 Red Sox payroll obligations. Right now, they've committed to pay Texas nine million to take Mike Lowell off their hands, assuming the trade goes through. They're also paying nine million for Julio Lugo not to play for them. They'll be paying $14 million for J.D. Drew - a heck of a bigger injury risk than Jason Bay - to play right field; that is, when he isn't taking his weekly day off.  They're paying $12.5 million to David Ortiz - which looked like a great deal at the time - to be their DH. Dice-K (or is that Dice-BB, as my friend William calls him?) may actually show up to spring training in shape this time around to earn his $8 million this year. And don't forget that captain Jason Varitek will be getting $5 million as a lifetime achievement award for 2010.

Yes, yes, I know the Yankees have ridiculous contracts as well. (Kei Igawa, anyone?) My point is that Theo Epstein, for all his brilliance, has made a bunch of bad deals that have cost his team. And that not many other teams could afford to essentially pay other teams to take on their players, the way Theo did with Manny Ramirez, Julio Lugo, and is trying to do with Mike Lowell. So sorry, I'm not going to feel too bad for the Red Sox's payroll obligations. If they're having to pinch pennies now, it's because of bad decisions by Epstein, not because of the Yankees' dominance.

Of course, now that I've written this article, watch the Sox sign John Lackey, Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, and some other high-priced free agents this afternoon, just to prove this all irrelevant!

But what do our Sox fan readers think? Tell us about it!

Are the Boston Red Sox building a bridge to nowhere?

What is Curtis Granderson's home run call going to be?

Now that the Yanks have a new center fielder in Curtis Granderson, all we have to do is figure out what home run call John Sterling will use for him.

First off, you know some play on words regarding a "Grand" slam is inevitable with Sterling. And some out-there call we haven't expected will also come up. I was listening to Curtis Mayfield's great 70s song "Pusherman" at the gym the other day, and it occurred to me that Sterling will have some line using Mayfield's name with some great defensive play.

So, what other calls will Sterling make? Any thoughts?

Incidentally, check out my Faster Times article from last week on the trade. And the more I read about Granderson, the more I like him. I also hope he continues his blogging for Yahoo Sports Big League Stew site.

In other news, I wrote on the 29th anniversary of John Lennon's death at my personal blog, Swan Squawking. Check it out here.

What do you think John Sterling's home run call for Curtis Granderson will be? Tell us about it!

What is Curtis Granderson's home run call going to be?

J.J. Putz: 2009's first pie thrower

Early in 2009, a 32-year-old pitcher new to New York with initials for his first name introduced pies in the face to an often-tense clubhouse. His new team, which had finished a disappointing 89-73 in 2008, missing the playoffs, would do far differently in 2009.

They would win 70 games.

That's right - A.J. Burnett was not the only pie thrower in New York this year. (And yes, as hard as it is to believe now, the Mets and Yankees did have the same record only a year ago.)

Early in spring training, new Met J.J. Putz hit SNY' s Kevin Burkhardt in the face with a pie.

MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone posted the video here:

At the time, Cerrone wrote of Putz:

his attitude in the clubhouse, the way he keeps people loose and having fun, and it's a big reason why he was acquired, because it is believed he can have a positive impact on the clubhouse for a team that is often tight when playing under pressure…

Putz and Cerrone had the right idea. But Burnett was the one who took this concept all the way to November, while Putz did not make it past the first week of June.

The three-way trade for Putz was one of the highlights of last year's offseason for Mets fans. Little did we know at the time that Omar Minaya was trading for damaged goods.

With Putz signing with the White Sox and Jeremy Reed probably not coming back, all Minaya has to show for the trade now is Sean Green.

It is too bad that the Mets never got a chance to see what a healthy Putz could do.

But it is probably just as well that Putz' pie-throwing was curtailed. Because the way things went last season, one of those pies in the face probably would have resulted in some sort of injury and would have been played endlessly on YouTube.

J.J. Putz: 2009's first pie thrower